Predictions for 2024

I recently wrapped up the major events of 2023:

That got me thinking about making a few predictions for the frequent-flyer and credit card world in 2024, and then coming back at the end of 2024 to see how these calls held up.

1. New Citi Cards

There have been rumors for a while that Citi is launching two new cards, though the details still haven’t been fully revealed.

My prediction is that Strata Premier will replace the current Premier card without major changes. Strata Elite will replace the old Prestige card and take the premium-card route, offering lounge access, statement credits, and similar perks, with an annual fee around $450.

2. New Wells Fargo Cards

Wells Fargo announced near the end of the year that it will add transfer partners to the Autograph card lineup, with details expected in the first quarter of 2024.

I think Wells Fargo will probably take cues from the transfer partners on its Bilt card. Current partners include:

Airline miles

  • American Airlines AAdvantage
  • United Airlines MileagePlus
  • Air Canada’s Aeroplan
  • Emirates Skywards
  • Flying Blue
  • Turkish Miles & Smiles
  • Virgin Atlantic Flying Club
  • HawaiianMiles
  • Cathay Pacific Asia Miles
  • Avianca

Hotel points

  • Marriott
  • World of Hyatt
  • IHG

That said, I doubt the transfer ratios will be especially generous. My guess is that programs like AA and UA, which already have fixed co-branded card partners, could come in at 0.5:1. Other airline partners may be better.

Wells Fargo may also launch three business cards, though I’m not expecting anything especially exciting.

3. AMEX Platinum Credit Overhaul

Right now, the AMEX Platinum still uses the old $200 airline incidental credit, which is honestly very hard to use. It pushes everyone into awkward workarounds like travel bank purchases. Meanwhile, the Aspire card has already switched to direct airfare reimbursement. So I think AMEX may make some modest changes to the Platinum credit, possibly turning it into $100 in airfare reimbursement for each half of the year. The current $695 annual fee already feels high enough, so I don’t think it’s likely to go even higher.

Of course, if AMEX does make a change, it would likely apply across all Platinum versions. My guess is that, similar to Aspire, the current year’s credit would be tracked separately and the new airfare credit would come with its own separate allotment.

4. Chase Adds More Premium Travel Features

Chase has already launched its own high-end travel booking platform, but it still isn’t as mature as FHR. According to Chase’s official announcement, the bank will enhance its luxury hotel benefits in 2024 under a new program called The Edit by Chase, available only to Chase Sapphire Reserve cardholders.

A few details disclosed so far:
Chase

  • Hotel bookings will be payable with UR points
  • Hotel bookings will automatically include perks like free breakfast, room upgrades, and hotel property credits
  • The program will launch in early 2024

It’s pretty clear that Chase wants to position CSR as a premium card on par with the AMEX Platinum by offering luxury hotel benefits to compete with AMEX’s FHR program. More competition in the luxury hotel space is definitely good for us. My guess is that CSR could eventually add some Edit-related credits as well.

Separately, Chase has been steadily expanding its Sapphire Lounge footprint, and I expect that to continue in 2024 as it builds out an airport lounge network that better matches the Sapphire Reserve card.

5. The Bilt Card Keeps Adding Benefits

Honestly, one of the biggest surprises to me has been the Bilt card. We’ve seen a lot of similar cards slowly collapse, get shut down, or disappear. Part of that was overly aggressive expansion, and part of it was relentless gaming by deal-seekers that burned through cash too quickly. But Bilt survived. Based on its current trajectory, it actually seems to be doing better and better. In the new year, it will also add elite tiers and related benefits.

So my prediction is that Bilt will continue operating through 2024, keep improving, and add even more partners.

6. Citi Points Become Transferable to AA

Back in 2021, there was a brief period when Citi ThankYou Points could be transferred to AA miles. But there hasn’t been any movement since then. My prediction is that, alongside the launch of Citi’s new card lineup, TYP will once again become transferable to AA miles at a 1:1 ratio.

7. AMEX Continues Expanding Its Family Card Rules

AMEX’s family card restrictions now cover its own core cards and most co-branded cards, though business cards and Hilton cards have not yet been fully included.

My guess is that in 2024, business cards and Hilton cards will also be brought under similar family rules. For example, if you apply for Aspire, the lower-tier cards may no longer be eligible for welcome offers afterward. On the business side, I’d expect AMEX’s own Business Gold and Business Platinum to be affected, and co-branded Delta Business cards may also face similar restrictions.

8. BofA Premium Cards Add New Benefits

When it comes to premium cards, BofA really hasn’t done much. It launched a premium Premium card, but it has largely been buried among the many competing premium-card options.

I think BofA should add benefits like redeeming points for travel at 1.5c/p to increase the value of its points. Transfer partners may be a bit too ambitious for them right now, but it’s also possible they could start with Alaska as an existing co-branded partner. A 1:1 transfer option would sound pretty compelling.

9. Capital One Premium Cards Get an Annual Fee Increase

C1’s Venture X is a premium card with excellent value, and it can even be a negative-fee card in practice.

Precisely because the value proposition is so strong, I expect Capital One to weaken it a bit. Based on the mainstream coupon-book trend, my guess is that they may add streaming or dining credits while raising the annual fee to $450.

10. Airlines and Hotels Continue Devaluing

This is the one prediction I’m most confident about. Most of the changes in recent years have not been positive; the only real difference is how severe the devaluation has been. Going forward, I expect all hotel and airline programs to move toward dynamic pricing. Airlines will likely keep point values in the 1c-1.3c range, while hotels will keep them in the 0.5c-1c range. Elite status will also become tied almost entirely to spending, and things like mattress runs and mileage runs will gradually fade into history.

Summary

At the end of 2024, let’s come back to this post and see how many of these predictions came true.

What are your own predictions for 2024? Feel free to leave them in the comments, and we can compare notes at the end of the year to see who was most accurate.