I’m sure everyone who just saw the news that the five-one policy may be extended to October is pretty disappointed if they need to return to China. But yesterday (May 22), the U.S. Department of Transportation (Department of Transportation) issued an order requiring several Chinese airlines to submit their flight schedules to the U.S. Department of Transportation, alleging that the five-one restrictions curb free competition between U.S. and Chinese airlines. There’s also a little nugget in the document about easing the five-one policy. Let’s take a closer look.

Document: Department of Transportation Order To File Schedules (May 22)

Five-one policy

Because of the CAAC’s five-one policy in March, each airline may operate only one route per country, one flight per week, and the number of flights may not exceed the level in place on March 12.

Because many foreign airlines (United, American, Delta, Air Canada, etc.) had already stopped flights to mainland China in February, and because of the rule that flights cannot exceed the March schedule, these airlines have been unable to resume service.

United and Delta want to restart China routes

As the pandemic situation has now reversed, restricting flights to China no longer makes much sense. On the other hand, there are large numbers of Chinese citizens abroad who want to return to mainland China, so demand is very strong and economy tickets have been pushed up to tens of thousands of RMB per ticket. Foreign airlines that had previously suspended service are naturally eager to get back in. United and Delta have already submitted applications to the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) for June flights, but the CAAC has not responded.

The U.S. Department of Transportation believes the five-one policy violates the 1980 U.S.-China Civil Air Transport Agreement because, by limiting all airlines from increasing flights, it effectively prevents foreign airlines from operating China routes, which violates the agreement’s requirement that Chinese and U.S. airlines have fair opportunities to compete. In addition, since the start of the pandemic, the number of U.S.-bound flights by Chinese airlines has also fallen by 94% (February data).

... each Party shall take all appropriate action to ensure that there exist fair and equal rights for the designated airlines of both Parties to operate the agreed services on the specified routes so as to achieve equality of opportunity, reasonable balance and mutual benefit.

Trump also tried to intervene, but ultimately decided not to impose restrictions on Chinese airlines for the time being.

Action by the U.S. Department of Transportation

The Department decided, under Part 213 of the civil aviation regulations, to impose requirements on four Chinese airlines. They must submit their current and future U.S.-related flight schedules to the Department by May 27 so that the Department can decide whether continuing to allow these flights would violate the public interest or the law.

As for the charter flights involved, the Air China charter mentioned in the news, for which a delay application was filed, is now operating normally and should already have been approved. China Eastern’s charter appears to have seen no movement for now. We can check again next week. Hainan Airlines and China Southern’s charters have all been approved. So far, we have not seen the Department of Transportation use charter flights to push back against the five-one policy.

CAAC promises to ease the five-one policy

The same order says that in the May 14 phone call between the U.S. Department of Transportation and the CAAC, the CAAC said China is considering removing the condition that flights may not exceed the March 12 schedule (that is, “only reduce, no increase”), but that the once-a-week flight restriction would not be lifted for now.

In response, the CAAC informed the Department that China is considering removing the March 12 schedule pre-condition; however, the restriction to once-weekly service on one route to China would remain in place.

If this policy is implemented, the three major U.S. airlines could each operate one flight a week to mainland China. If this policy is not limited to the United States, then other foreign airlines (for example, from Europe and the Middle East) could also operate one weekly flight to mainland China, which would greatly improve the options for connecting or nonstop flights back home, and there may no longer be a need to transit through Belarus.

I want to go back to China but can’t buy a ticket. What should I do?

Because the situation is still so heated, the author also does not know exactly how things will develop. But the news that the CAAC is considering easing the five-one policy is definitely good news. If you want to take a gamble, you can also try your luck with United, Delta, or even Air Canada tickets. But one flight per week is the most that will be kept, and that will not change.