One thing about arguments on the internet: if you are wrong, you can just delete the post. Talking big costs nothing. Think about yourself—when the Federal Reserve met last month, did you think, “They are definitely cutting rates this time”? When the tariff news came out, did you tell someone, “iPhones are definitely going to get more expensive”? You probably make judgments like this every week, but other than saying them in a group chat, they do not mean much. Until I discovered something: these judgments can actually be traded. Your “opinions” may actually have a chance to make money.

Opinions can be traded too? How does that work?

Moomoo recently launched a new feature: Prediction Market. The idea is simple: for something that has not happened yet, you can bet Yes or No.

The contract price reflects the market’s current consensus on the probability of that event happening. If you are right, it settles at $1.00. If you are wrong, the most you can lose is your purchase cost—nothing more.

For example: “Will the Fed cut rates in September?”

  • If the “YES” contract price is $0.65, the market is saying: people think the probability of a rate cut is about 65%.

If you buy 100 YES contracts:

  • Cost = $65
  • If the Fed does cut rates → each contract becomes $1 → value $100
  • If the Fed does not cut rates → each contract becomes $0 → you lose it all

You might ask: can’t platforms like DraftKings also let you wager on things?

  • The difference is that those platforms are the house—the odds are set unilaterally by the platform, the spread includes a built-in take, and if you win too much, your account may be limited.
  • Moomoo’s prediction market, by contrast, uses an official exchange model. There is no house. Prices are determined by buyers and sellers. You will not be banned for winning too much, and it is directly regulated by the U.S. federal CFTC/NFA, with higher compliance standards.
  • Even more importantly, it is inside your Moomoo brokerage account, which makes it safer and more reliable—not a separate standalone platform.

New users who open and fund an account now also have a chance to get up to $1000 in NVIDIA stock and enjoy an 8.1% APY benefit on idle cash. Click the link to participate.

What does this have to do with everyday life?

Here are a few real-world scenarios that may make it click right away.

  • You are following the NBA Finals: You think Wembanyama is too young and the Spurs cannot win this time. Instead of endlessly debating in a group chat, you can find a “Spurs to win the championship” contract in Moomoo and buy No. How much you spend is up to you—$1 is fine, $50 is fine too. The point is to participate. When the series is over, the result speaks for itself—if you win, it is a real payout; if you lose, you only lose the amount you paid to buy in, and that is it.
  • You are watching the Federal Reserve: Rate cut or no rate cut—people argue about it online every day. If you have looked at a bunch of data and formed your own view, you can express it directly through a contract like “Will the Fed cut rates in 2026?” You do not need to trade options, and there are not so many complicated variables. It is simply a yes-or-no question, and it settles directly once the result is known.
  • You just want to follow a trending topic: Will Taylor Swift get married this year? Will Spain advance in the World Cup? These are already the kinds of topics you see while scrolling. Put $1 to $5 on it in Moomoo, and you may find that seeing related news afterward feels completely different—because now you have a position in it.

How do you participate? Is there a high barrier to entry?

For ordinary people, this is even simpler than investing in stocks or funds. You only need to have a view on an event, choose yes or no, and you can participate. You do not need complicated fundamental or technical analysis knowledge.

The barrier to entry is also very low. You can start with $0.01. Losses on each contract are capped. You can put in as much or as little as you want, and you define your own risk. If you change your mind halfway through, you can close your position at any time without waiting for the event’s final settlement.

Moomoo’s advantages

Very low barrier, extremely simple gameplay

  • Broad coverage and many categories: the first batch includes 100+ contracts covering hot events across sports, the economy, politics, culture, and more.
  • Simple to use: no need to understand complex financial concepts. Just decide “yes” or “no” to participate.
  • Ultra-low cost: start with $0.01, enjoy a 6-month promotional period ($0 commission + $0.01 per contract exchange fee), and fractional contract trading is supported.

Tight risk controls, manageable losses

  • Limited risk: the maximum loss is limited to your purchase cost, with no additional margin-call risk.
  • Flexible trading: supports 24/7 trading, so you do not have to wait for the event to settle and can close your position anytime.

Professional tools for easier decision-making

  • AI-powered assistance: MoomooAI collects news in real time and analyzes core fundamentals and key variables to help you make more informed decisions.
  • Community sentiment insights: community comments and interaction are supported, letting you see other investors’ real sentiment and the market’s direction in real time.

Smooth experience, many order types

  • One-stop account: no need to open a separate account or transfer funds. Buying power is shared, and you can trade directly with funds in your existing account.
  • Multiple order types: supports market orders, limit orders, fractional orders, parlay combo orders, and more to meet professional trading needs.

My take

Robinhood started heavily promoting Event Contracts in 2025. In reality, Robinhood itself is not a prediction market exchange. Many of the contracts behind the scenes actually come from Kalshi, a U.S. prediction market exchange regulated by the CFTC. Robinhood simply places these markets directly inside its app. Webull has taken almost the same route: Webull’s Prediction Market is also connected to Kalshi’s exchange and order book. Moomoo’s newly added feature is also built on Kalshi under the hood. In comparison, it has CFTC regulation, and if you are more familiar and comfortable with the Moomoo app, you can try placing a small trade inside it—just treat it like buying a lottery ticket for fun.

Personally, I do not recommend spending too much time and energy researching this, since it is not value investing. However, you can use these probabilities to gauge the likelihood of various events, which may be helpful for investing in the U.S. stock market—for example, seeing how people are predicting rate cuts.

Sign up for Moomoo through this site’s exclusive link and meet the deposit requirements to qualify for up to three rewards: up to $1,000 in Anthropic stock, $100 in trading coupons, and up to 8.1% APY on idle cash. You can also enjoy one year of Moomoo Engine’s premium features for free. Here’s a closer look at each offer. I think the best value is depositing $2,000 to get $200. If you have enough funds, you can deposit $10,000 to get $300. Idle cash can also earn 8.1% APY. The promotion expires on November 30!

First reward: New-user deposit bonus, worth up to $1,000 in Anthropic stock

  • Make an initial cumulative deposit of $500 to receive $30 worth of Anthropic stock -> 60-day holding period
  • Make an initial cumulative deposit of $2,000 to receive a cumulative total of $100 worth of Anthropic stock -> 60-day holding period
  • Make an initial cumulative deposit of $10,000 to receive a cumulative total of $200 worth of Anthropic stock> 60-day holding period
  • Make an initial cumulative deposit of $50,000 to receive a cumulative total of $400 worth of Anthropic stock -> 120-day holding period ($200 released after 60 days and the remaining $200 after 120 days)
  • Make an initial cumulative deposit of $100,000 to receive a cumulative total of $1,000 worth of Anthropic stock -> 180-day holding period ($200 released after 60 days, $400 after 120 days, and the remaining $400 after 180 days)

You can trade with your deposit or simply leave it in your account to earn interest. If you plan to trade, I recommend depositing a bit more so losses don’t bring your balance below the required threshold!

Second reward: Trading coupons. New users who deposit $100 receive 10 $10 trading coupons

  • You can use one coupon for each trade of $100 or more, which is basically an incentive to trade more. If you just want to cash out, you can buy SGOV.
  • You can also get another $10*10 in trading coupons if you refer a friend who signs up for Moomoo.

Third reward: High yield for new users, with up to 8.1% APY through the account-opening Cash Sweep bonus

  • New customers can participate in Cash Sweep as soon as they open an account. The coupon will be sent to the account and must be activated in the app.
  • Idle cash can earn 3.35% APY plus a 2-month 4.75% APY booster (with deposits and withdrawals available at any time and automatic trade settlement). This 8.1% APY applies only to the first $20,000 in cash deposits.

Note: This article covers Moomoo U.S. benefits and product features. Applicants using an SSN or ITIN can receive the rewards as usual by entering a U.S. address.

For other U.S. stock brokerages and basic investing knowledge, you can also check out:

Stock Market Basics

Here are some popular U.S. stock brokerages and their account-opening bonuses:

Overview Sign-Up Bonus Quick Take
Moomoo $200 in stock vouchers + $1,000 in Anthropic stock + 8.1% APY Feature-rich with a strong Chinese-language experience. Its market data, Level 2 quotes, options, and cash management features are useful for everyone from beginners to active traders.
TradeUp 50 shares of NVDA + a chance to win 5 shares + 4% for three months Well suited to active trading, with competitive trading fees and margin rates for U.S. tax residents. It supports Web Trading and Level 2 quotes and offers Chinese-language customer service.
Webull 12 fractional shares + one month of Premium membership Strong charting and active-trading features, including technical indicators, options, and premarket and after-hours trading. A good fit for frequent traders.
BBAE Up to $650 in rewards Convenient for Chinese users to open an account; applications are accepted without an SSN or ITIN. It offers good Chinese-language support, but currently charges a platform fee, making it less suitable for frequent trading with small amounts.
Robinhood A chance to win 1 share of stock Its simple interface is easy to use, making it suitable for first-time U.S. stock investors. Gold members also get a higher yield on uninvested cash and lower margin rates.
Interactive Brokers Up to $1,000 A highly capable broker with access to global markets and multiple currencies. Its margin costs are competitive, and Chinese residents can also open accounts. A good fit for experienced investors and those investing globally.
TradeStation $250 Geared toward professional and active traders, with powerful advanced charting, strategy backtesting, and automated trading tools. Most long-term investors may not need these features.
Schwab Up to $1,000 Well suited to long-term investing and larger portfolios, with convenient access to ETFs and CDs. Checking accounts and global ATM access are also advantages, but the default yield on uninvested cash is relatively low.
Fidelity Account opening link A long-established full-service brokerage suited to long-term investing, ETFs, and retirement accounts. It also offers good cash management, making it a solid choice as a primary long-term brokerage.
BIT (formerly Matrixport) Earn $210 by depositing and trading Suitable for Chinese users and digital asset investors. You can use funds such as USDT and USDC to invest in U.S. stocks. It is not a traditional U.S. brokerage, so review its fees and asset custody structure separately.
SoFi Invest $75 for opening an account Easy to use and supports Stock Bits, making it suitable for small investments and long-term investing. It has fewer advanced market data and trading tools, so it is not ideal for frequent trading.
M1 Finance Get $10 when you deposit Focused on Pies and automated investing. It is well suited to setting a stock and ETF allocation and investing regularly over the long term, but not to active trading.

If you don’t have an SSN or ITIN but still want to invest in U.S. stocks, consider the brokerages and platforms below. They accept a full set of Chinese documents, and you can register with a national ID card or passport. None participates in China’s CRS.

  • BBAE: Welcoming to Chinese users; no SSN or ITIN required to open an account
  • BIT (formerly Matrixport): Open an account with a national ID card; approval can take just a few hours.
  • Bitget: Complete identity verification with a national ID card or Chinese passport

If you’re in China and want to invest in U.S. stocks, see this overview:

Disclaimer

This article is only an introduction to a product feature and does not constitute investment advice. Event contracts are not suitable for all investors. Please understand the relevant risks before trading.

Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Prediction Markets are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., an NFA-registered FCM. Restrictions apply. Certain contracts may not be available in all U.S. states. Sports contracts not available in all states. $0 commission is a limited-time promotion; other fees may apply. 8.1% APY promo for new users only, rates subject to change. Terms and conditions apply. Securities offered through Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.