On June 5, six Arab countries—Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Libya, and Yemen—almost simultaneously announced that they were cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar. The reason given was that these countries accused Qatar of supporting terrorism and extremist groups, including Al Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, and ISIS. In addition, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain also alleged that Qatar had interfered in the internal affairs of both countries as well as other GCC states. The Maldives also joined the list of countries severing ties shortly afterward.
Severing Diplomatic Relations
As a result of this diplomatic break,
- Qatari nationals in these countries were ordered to leave within a specified period, while diplomatic personnel were required to depart within 48 hours.
- These countries would close their ports, airports, and airspace to Qatar.
- Flights between Qatar and these countries would be suspended.
Because Qatar might not participate in OPEC’s crude output cuts, oil production could increase instead. As a result, oil prices actually fell. Brent crude was down 0.86% today.
Route Impact and Airspace
Emirates (EK) and Etihad (EY) have both announced that, starting today (June 5), they are canceling all flights to and from Doha, Qatar (DOH). Affected passengers can choose either a full refund or rebooking to nearby alternative destinations. Other airlines have not yet made announcements for now, but it seems likely that more cancellations are only a matter of time.
Because Qatar Airways flights can no longer pass through the airspace of these seven countries, they must leave Qatar via the north through Iran or Iraq. As everyone knows, surface-to-air missiles used by terrorist groups in Iraq are not exactly known for discriminating targets, so Iran is probably the safer option. The airline hit hardest by this crisis is undoubtedly Qatar Airways (QR). If only these seven countries isolate Qatar, the impact may still be manageable. But if more countries follow their lead and increase the pressure, Qatar Airways’ global route network could end up full of holes. Qatar Airways’ CEO is probably praying right about now...
What do you think about Qatar?