Update 2: With mounting evidence pointing to Iran mistakenly shooting down a Ukrainian passenger plane, Iran now appears to have effectively acknowledged that it was indeed a misfire. It looks like the Supreme Leader’s approval rating may be rising again this year, and U.S. stocks are likely to react next week. If it was a mistaken shootdown, could Western countries continue to ban flights over Iran/Iraq airspace?

【Global Times Flash】According to AP, Iranian state TV said, citing a military statement, that Iran unintentionally shot down the Ukrainian passenger aircraft. The statement was released the morning of the 11th local time and blamed the shootdown on “human error.”

CCTV News reported that, in the statement, it said that when the flight left Imam Khomeini International Airport it came near a sensitive military site of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. A shift change was underway, and the site was on high alert. In that situation, the plane was accidentally hit due to a human error.

After the IRGC admitted the accidental shootdown, Iran’s foreign minister Zarif just updated on X, saying, “Today is a sad day. A preliminary conclusion from the armed forces’ internal investigation is that human error, in a crisis triggered by U.S. adventurism, caused this disaster. We deeply regret, apologize to, and offer condolences for our people, all the victims’ families, and other affected countries.”

Update: Iran fired off a dozen-or-so missiles fireworks and is “hugging peace” with Trump! The flight bans did expand, but they likely won’t last long—normal operation should resume soon.

Once again, the old saying: the market’s ups and downs still come down to Trump!

The news kept coming in through the evening, so I had to put this down:

【Beijing Time 10:56】In the early hours of the 8th local time, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked the U.S. military’s Al Asad Air Base in Iraq. As reported by Fox News, the latest statement from a U.S. Central Command spokesman said Iran launched a total of 15 “ballistic missiles” at Iraq, with 10 missiles hitting Al Asad Air Base, one hitting the Erbil military base, and 4 missing their targets.

The Great Leader Trump was furious and posted on social media in response to the Iranian missile attack, saying, “All right, good, see you tomorrow!”

【Global Times Report】The Tasnim News Agency in Iran just said that a Ukrainian International Airlines Boeing 737 with 180 passengers and crew crashed near Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran on the 8th.

RT, citing the flight-tracking site Flight Radar, said that Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 suddenly disappeared from radar after departing at 6:00 local time. Tasnim also said the aircraft crash was due to technical issues. RT added that the crash happened several hours after Iran struck the U.S. military base in Iraq.

Impact

  • Likely to affect near-term U.S. equities (especially Boeing shares) and gold prices
  • Countries and various airlines have started to suspend flights over the Gulf area
【Beijing Time 10:00】AP latest: the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has banned U.S. pilots and U.S. airlines from flying in parts of Iraqi, Iranian, and Persian Gulf airspace.

【Global Times Flash】CNN latest: Singapore Airlines has rerouted all of its flights to and from Europe to avoid Iranian airspace.


By the way, in practice, aircraft transiting the Gulf region were rattled and are proactively avoiding Iraqi and Iranian airspace (photo from the internet)