Using the The Points Guy link, you can see the application page for the best-ever offer of 150,000 Hilton points + $100. If you only see a 125,000-point offer when you open it, try refreshing a few times in incognito mode. According to the page, this offer expires on December 31.
One nice feature of the Surpass card is that if you spend 15K in a calendar year, you get a weekend free-night certificate with no Cat restrictions. If you apply now, it's recommended to start your qualifying spending after January 1, 2020. Since you may still be able to ask for another retention offer at the end of December 2020 (the base offer is spend $2,000 for 15K; for a subtle way to ask for a retention offer, see this 101 update), you'll only need to spend a total of 15,000, and the guaranteed return is as follows:
- Guaranteed points: 150,000 + 15,000 + 15,000 * 3x points = 210,000
- 1 weekend free-night certificate, which can be very valuable
- $100 statement credit
- Plus, after holding the card for a year, there may be a future 150,000-point Aspire upgrade offer, and December is a good month for various reimbursements; see this article
- Potential future add-authorized-user offer, $500/5,000 * 4 authorized-user cards (this one is more YMMV)
After subtracting the signup spending and the retention spending, you only need to complete 10,000 over the middle year, which isn't too difficult. If that still feels too hard, consider using Plastiq (there are often promotions with a 1%-1.5% fee). If you haven't had this card before and still have a card slot, you may want to consider it.
https://www.uscreditcards101.com/amex-hilton-hhonors-surpass-credit-card-review/